One of the topics I find the most fascinating in mobile was again in the news yesterday with the imminent arrival of the 2 billion-th GSM subscriber—mostly due to astronomically high subscriber numbers in emerging markets.

“While it took just 12 years for the industry to reach the first billion connections. The second billion has been achieved in just two and a half years boosted by the phenomenal take up of mobile in emerging markets such as China, India, Africa and Latin America, which accounted for 82% of the second billion subscribers” (via Digital Lifestyles)

While in Helsinki last month, I had the opportunity to play with some of Nokia’s ‘ultra-low cost handsets’—specifically designed for emerging markets. Often referred to as the “sub $40 phone”, some recent models retail as high as $100 but all are meant to be ultra-durable (rubberized finish to combat dust, high battery life), practical (alarm clock, FM radio, speakerphone) yet fashion and lifestyle oriented (MP3 player, removable covers etc.)

Marketed with taglines like “Now Everyone Can Phone” and “For the Business of Life”, these are the handsets that enable business, learning and communication for millions of families, students and businesses in emerging markets. Like Alex—a friend of ours from Thailand.

Alex lives on the island of Phuket. The income levels in Phuket are statistically high for Thailand but much of this is disproportionate due to the high number of local and expat professionals running resorts and tourism businesses on the island. By contrast, there is also a high, unofficial population of Burmese labourers as well as a Thai itinerant workers who pour in from the north to work in tourism during the busy season, or construction during the low season.

Alex lives with his brother (nicknamed Pig—I don’t think we ever found out his real name) along with their sister, her baby and occasional assorted relatives in a one room apartment in Phuket town. It was a simple whitewahsed fan-cooled concrete structure. The rent was about 3000 baht per month ($100) and it really was the most basic of accommodation. Alex owned an old two-stroke Suzuki motorbike while his brother drove an old tuk-tuk style truck (not the colourful two stroke tuk-tuks you see in Bangkok but the country version that resembles a tiny utility truck.) With these vehicles, cheap business cards, and two cell-phones they made their living offering day trips or rides to tourists. Alex also had a hotmail address but he mostly used it to keep in touch with the occasional repeat client, emailing them in advance of a yearly trip, or contacting people with specific times and dates.

One could argue that transportation was the main definer of his ability to earn income, but without the ability to keep in contact with customers, call them to schedule a pick-up spot, or call ahead to find out how busy a tourist attraction was, he likely would not have earned nearly as much as he did. And he wasn’t earning much.

By comparison, many of his competitors had to rely on phone rental booths (ie. lady sitting by the side of the road with a notebook, pen and handful of prepaid phones; renting them out by the minute) or pay fixed-line phones (often independent as well but harder to find and more difficult to operate.) One could argue though that it was the availabilty and portability of technology in general—not just the mobile phone—that made the biggest difference to all of them as illustrated in this quote from Dean Bubley a few weeks back on Forum Oxford..

“I heard a great anecdote from an aid-worker in Zambia. She said that the really cool kids don’t want a mobile—they want a USB memory stick on a chain round their necks.”

So this is a fascinating area and there’s lots of great information out there if you’re interested in learning more.

• Connecting the Next Billion (PDF via Motorola)
• The Impact of Mobile Phones in Africa (PDF via Vodaphone)
• Nokia New Horizons (Quarterly PDF publication. This issue has an interesting article about reducing churn in emerging markets through the use of micro-retailers and ‘top up’ plans. We used this type of service in Thailand last year with Orange. Very handy.)
• Archive of ‘sub $40′ handset posts on Textually
• Mobility for Development (dispatches from environmental and development experts in the field, via Nokia)
• Village Phone Program (Grameen Foundation)
• Calling an end to poverty (The Economist)
• Nextbillion.net (Telecommunications and IT blog archive)
• Mobile Learning for Expanding Educational Opportunities (UNESCO, covers South East Asia specifically)